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Worried Investors' Move to Safe Assets

The UST3M-UST10Y yield curve inversion suggests investors are snapping up safe assets and eschewing risk assets; this curve is a precursor to the inversion of the the UST2Y-UST10Y - only 10 basis points away.

This curve is corroborating the global deterioration of soft and hard economic data.  

The Fed may be forced to cut the benchmark rate, faster than they would like, in 2019.  

While a rate cut is a positive for equities, as lower rates make the asset class more attractive, it may not be enough to compensate for the force of the global business cycle contraction.

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